#25 – The Singularity Is Near

I first learned about Ray Kurzweil back in 2000, when I was still listening to Our Lady Peace.  Their fourth album, Spiritual Machines, was inspired by Kurzweil’s 1999 book The Age of Spiritual Machines and included clips of him reading excerpts from the book between tracks.  Being the ardent Raine Maida devotee that I was, I tracked down Kurzweil’s book, and it kind of blew my mind.  Here’s this well-respected scientist and inventor, predicting the future of technology based on the exponential growth of computers to date.  His writing made me respect futurists as being good for something other than Internet robot nano-maids.

The Age of Spiritual Machines was kind of a philosophical book, talking about the nature of spirituality and how we will define humanity once computers are able to contain a person’s entire consciousness.  I mean, Kurzweil had science and facts to back up his theories, but the book was not nearly as scientific as The Singularity Is Near.  Now, Kurzweil is confident that the Singularity – the moment when artificial intelligence beging to exponentially surpass human intelligence – is inevitable, and is incredibly close.  In fact, he pegs the precise date as 2045, based on everything we know now and on predictable trends in technological improvements.  The world’s changed a lot in the last 40 years, but if Kurzweil is right, that’s going to be nothing compared to the next 40.

The Singularity is so named because things are going to change so rapidly and completely that it’s hard to make any predictions as to what’s actually going to happen after the event.  There’s nobody in a better position than Kurzweil to attempt it, though, and he shows through very convincing arguments the potential that the three fields of genetics, nanotechnology and robotics (essentially AI) offer in the days leading up to the Singularity, and beyond.  I’m no scientist, and most of the book’s descriptions of the current state of the technology went right over my head.  When talking about the physical capacity of the human brain, you’re dealing with trillions of bits of information, but assuming his numbers are correct we’re ridiculously close to building a computer with the ability to contain a person’s entire consciousness.  And just imagine what a computer that powerful will be able to design.

Ray Kurzweil has got to be about the most optimistic person I’ve ever read.  While every other person writing about the future is terrified about climate change, oil depletion, terrorism, and nuclear war, Kurzweil is confident that the three Singularitarian revolutions of genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics will be able to solve all of these problems, and more.  This is the only book I’ve ever read that’s given me any reason to believe global warning won’t end up killing us all.  Kurzweil addresses the problems posed by self-replicating nanobots and human-level artifical intelligence, not to mention a US administration that is decidedly reluctant about science, with equal optimism and confidence.  This book ought to replace Chicken Soup for the Soul; it’s unbelievably uplifting.

I think that everyone ought to read The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology.  It’s a very exciting look at what the days to come should potentially hold, and it leads me to believe that if we can just avoid turning society into The Day After Tomorrow, 1984, Mad Max, Jennifer Government, Brave New World, Gattaca, Soylent Green, 28 Days Later, or The Matrix for a few more years, everything might actually be alright.

EDIT:  Okay, now I’m conflicted.  The Singularity Is Near is very optimistic and well-researched and enlightening, but this related article from Cracked.com, “5 Recent Scientific Advances (And How They’ll Destroy Us All)” is much, much funnier than Kurzweil’s book.  I’m not sure who to trust now.